Hard bargaining

nations, including India and China, to make mandatory cuts. The outcome agreed by the US was no specific commitment to the 25–40 per cent cut, only a suggestion in a footnote, and no insistence on a commitment from developing nations. While many welcomed the fact that the US was now on board the climate negotiations, environmental groups and many scientists warned that the agreement was weak and did not commit countries to the ambitious cuts required. And the US delegation were also quick to point out that, while Europe was saying much about climate change, it was doing much less. They argued that despite a pledge to cut emissions by 8 per cent by 2012 the 15 EU countries have cut emissions by only 2 per cent, and that in the last recorded year — 2004– 2005 — emissions rose. The Bali roadmap is supposed to pave the way to further negotiations in Warsaw in December, shortly after the US election, but before the new president takes office. These negotiations will then lead towards a new treaty at Copenhagen next year, to give governments time to ratify it before the Kyoto protocol expires in 2012. There was also agreement that rich countries should help poorer countries by sharing ‘clean’ lowcarbon technology and by setting up a multi-million dollar fund to help them to adapt to climate change and to widen a future agreement to cover deforestation, which is blamed for one fifth of the world’s rising carbon dioxide. But there was widespread disappointment at the concessions made to the US to get its agreement, mostly over the lack of detail about any clear pledges. Russia, Japan and Canada also objected to key element of the deal. Russia is becoming an increasingly important exporter of fossil fuel, mostly gas, to Europe and beyond, and plans are under development for the exploitation of vast reserves of oil sands in Canada, which critics say could generate vast amounts of greenhouse gas emissions. Nelson Muffuh, climate change policy analyst for the charity Christian Aid said: “We were expecting a roadmap and we’ve got one. But it lacks signposts and there is no agreed destination.” And while the policymakers discuss the roadmap, events and research continue to build the case for action. Shortly before the Bali meeting Cyclone Sidr hit Bangladesh with a timely show of the devastation such storms can bring and fears that their likelihood may increase with global warming. And at the beginning of the month fresh concerns were raised about the ability of the vast boreal forest encircling the northern hemisphere from Russia and Europe to Canada and Alaska to absorb atmospheric carbon. Long considered to be a valuable sink for carbon emissions, new research suggests that, as the atmosphere has warmed over recent years, the transition from carbon sink during the summer to carbon source during the winter has changed, with the transition to source advancing earlier during the autumn. The results, published in Nature by a team led by Timo Vesala at the University of Helsinki, will prompt a rethink of climate change models. “This means potentially a bigger warming effect,” he said. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which shared the Nobel Peace Prize with Al Gore, has concluded that humanity has eight years left to prevent the worst effects of global warming. Carbon uptake by land and sea is crucial to predictions about future warming. “We are currently getting a 50 per cent discount on the climatic impact of our fossil fuel emissions,” says John Miller, a climate scientist at the University of Colorado in a commentary on the research in Nature — meaning that half of what we put out is taken up by the oceans and ecosystems on land. Many researchers are hoping that results such as these will help policymakers commit to the best possible roadmap to navigate climate change prospects.